# Are prediction markets legal in Germany? Polymarket, Kalshi and the law

> No. Bets on elections, politics, the economy or entertainment, which is what prediction markets offer, can't be licensed in Germany: only bets on sports and horse races can. The gambling regulator, the GGL, says taking part from Germany isn't allowed and can be a criminal offence, and it named Polymarket as illegal in September 2025. As of October 2, 2026, no prediction market or betting exchange was on its whitelist of licensed operators.

- URL: https://safebet.ai/de/guides/are-prediction-markets-legal-in-germany/
- Markdown version: https://safebet.ai/de/guides/are-prediction-markets-legal-in-germany/index.html.md
- Last updated: 2026-10-22 (re-checked when an operator changes its terms or a regulator or court acts)
- Author: SafeBet.ai Research Team (SafeBet.ai)
- Notice: Advertising. SafeBet.ai may be paid by the operators shown when you register through our links. We only link to operators on the official whitelist of Germany’s gambling regulator, the GGL. 18+ only. Prediction markets aren’t licensable in Germany, and we don’t link to any.
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## Key takeaways

- Under the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021, any bet for money on a future event is gambling, and only bets on sports and horse races can be licensed. Bets on political, economic or social events (Gesellschaftswetten) can't be.
- The GGL says taking part in these bets from Germany isn't allowed and can be punishable; offering, brokering or advertising them can be too.
- The GGL named Polymarket as illegal on September 5, 2025, and Polymarket's own terms, effective August 11, 2026, bar trading from Germany and ban VPNs.
- No prediction market or betting exchange was on the GGL whitelist on October 2, 2026.
- Event contracts that are financial instruments count as binary options, which may not be sold to retail clients anywhere in the EU (ESMA, July 3, 2026).
- Nine European gambling regulators, the GGL among them, warned about prediction markets in a joint statement in June 2026.

## The short answer

Bets on political, economic or social events can't be licensed in Germany, and taking part from Germany isn't allowed. That's the position of Germany's gambling regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), and it covers what prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi mainly offer: contracts on elections, interest rates, awards or world events. We don't rank or link to prediction markets in Germany for that reason.

## Why prediction markets can't be licensed

The Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021 treats any bet for money on whether a future event happens, or how it turns out, as gambling (§ 3 Abs. 1). Only two kinds of bets can be licensed: fixed-odds bets on sports events and bets on horse races. Everything else, which the GGL calls **Gesellschaftswetten** (bets on social events), is "not licensable and therefore prohibited". Its examples:

- elections and other political events;
- court rulings, natural disasters and the weather;
- economic developments;
- TV shows such as Germany's Next Topmodel, the Eurovision Song Contest and the Oscars.

The GGL's reasons: such events are prone to manipulation, hard to verify and settle neutrally, and some can be influenced by the participants themselves.

## What the GGL has said

| Date | Statement |
|---|---|
| September 5, 2025 | Warned against Gesellschaftswetten "such as those offered on the Polymarket platform", calling them illegal under German law |
| May 29, 2026 | After a meeting of European regulators in Rome, said prediction markets count as illegal gambling under German law and announced a cross-border working group |
| June 19, 2026 | Joined a joint statement of nine European gambling regulators (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland) warning about prediction markets |
| August 13, 2026 | Said taking part from Germany "isn't permitted and can be punishable", and asked the media to tell readers so |

## Can you be punished for taking part?

The GGL says so explicitly: taking part from Germany "kann strafbar sein", can be a criminal offence. § 285 of the Criminal Code punishes taking part in unlicensed public gambling with up to six months in prison or a fine of up to 180 daily rates, and § 284 punishes offering or advertising it more heavily.

There are practical risks too. An unlicensed platform isn't connected to OASIS or the €1,000 monthly deposit limit, no German authority supervises how it holds your money or settles your bets, and the GGL can have its payment providers blocked.

A site that effectively keeps German users out isn't automatically an illegal offer in Germany, the GGL says. That's why some platforms let you look at their markets from Germany but not trade.

## Polymarket and Kalshi

- **Polymarket** is the platform the GGL named in 2025. Its own terms of use, effective August 11, 2026, list Germany among the countries from which trading isn't permitted, and forbid getting around that with a VPN. See [is Polymarket legal in Germany?](https://safebet.ai/de/guides/is-polymarket-legal-in-germany/)
- **Kalshi** is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which doesn't make it legal in Germany: it holds no German licence and isn't on the GGL whitelist.

## What about event contracts from brokers?

Some event contracts are financial instruments, for example contracts on inflation figures or interest rates. On July 3, 2026, the EU's securities regulator ESMA said such contracts fall under the binary-option rules, so they may not be marketed or sold to retail clients: every EU country has a national ban, Germany's from BaFin since 2019. Firms may offer them to professional clients only, and only with an investment-services licence. ESMA added that event contracts may also count as bets under national gambling law.

## What you can bet on legally

Sports and horse racing, with operators licensed by the GGL. Our guide to [sports betting in Germany](https://safebet.ai/de/sports-betting/is-sports-betting-legal/) explains the rules, and our [ranking of the best betting sites in Germany](https://safebet.ai/de/sports-betting/) compares licensed sportsbooks. None of them may offer bets on elections or other social events.

## Frequently asked questions

### Is Polymarket legal in Germany?

No. The GGL named Polymarket in September 2025 as an example of bets that can't be licensed in Germany and are therefore illegal, and Polymarket's own terms of use bar trading from Germany. See [is Polymarket legal in Germany?](https://safebet.ai/de/guides/is-polymarket-legal-in-germany/)

### Is Kalshi legal in Germany?

No. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but it holds no German licence, and the GGL says bets on political, economic or social events can't be licensed in Germany at all. Being able to sign up doesn't make it legal: the GGL notes that such offers are often visible from Germany even though taking part is prohibited.

### Can I be punished for using a prediction market from Germany?

It's possible. The GGL says taking part from Germany "can be punishable": § 285 of the Criminal Code makes taking part in unlicensed public gambling an offence, with up to six months in prison or a fine of up to 180 daily rates.

### Is betting on elections legal in Germany?

No. Political bets are the GGL's first example of Gesellschaftswetten, bets on social events that can't be licensed in Germany. That applies to bookmakers and prediction markets alike, so licensed German sportsbooks don't offer them.

### Are betting exchanges legal in Germany?

None holds a German licence: no betting exchange was on the GGL whitelist on October 2, 2026.

### Are prediction-market winnings taxable in Germany?

We found no guidance from the Federal Ministry of Finance on prediction-market gains as of October 22, 2026. Since taking part from Germany isn't allowed, the question shouldn't arise; our [guide to gambling taxes in Germany](https://safebet.ai/de/guides/gambling-taxes-germany/) covers licensed gambling.

## Sources

1. [GGL informiert über rechtliche Risiken von Gesellschaftswetten und Prognosemärkten](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-informiert-ueber-rechtliche-risiken-von-gesellschaftswetten-und-prognosemaerkten) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, 2026-08-13
2. [FAQ: Gesellschaftswetten](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/fuer-spielende/informationen-fuer-spielende-faqs/faq-illegales-gluecksspiel/faq-gesellschaftswetten) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, updated 2026-08-13
3. [GGL warnt vor Teilnahme an illegalen Gesellschaftswetten](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-warnt-vor-teilnahme-an-illegalen-gesellschaftswetten) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, 2025-09-05
4. [GGL nimmt am Europe Regulators Roundtable in Rom teil](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/news/ggl-nimmt-an-internationalen-austausch-dem-europe-regulators-roundtable-in-rom-teil) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, 2026-05-29
5. [Joint statement by gambling regulators on prediction markets](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20260617_Joint_Statement_by_gambling_regulators.pdf) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, 2026-06-17
6. [Übersicht erlaubter Anbieter (Whitelist)](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/fuer-spielende/uebersicht-erlaubter-anbieter-whitelist) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, last updated 2026-10-02; accessed 2026-10-22
7. [Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021 (§ 3, consolidated text)](https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/images/pdf/20250131_Konsolidierte%20Fassung%20des%20GluStV%202021%20mit%20Anderungen%20von%202022.pdf) — Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder, accessed 2026-10-22
8. [Strafgesetzbuch, § 285 (Beteiligung am unerlaubten Glücksspiel)](https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/stgb/__285.html) — Bundesministerium der Justiz, accessed 2026-10-22
9. [Public statement on the application of the national product intervention measures on binary options to event contracts](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-07/ESMA35-243228190-8148_Public_Statement_on_the_application_of_the_national_product_intervention_measures_on_binary_options_to_event_contracts.pdf) — European Securities and Markets Authority, 2026-07-03
10. [Opinion on BaFin's product intervention measure on binary options](https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/esma-35-43-1952-esma_opinion_under_article_432_mifir_de_bo.pdf) — European Securities and Markets Authority, 2019-06-24
11. [Polymarket Terms of Use](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1N4aYlRcqaWCeKMID7vUSWJ1UPMvw_v6SP4cOFN8ZxR4/preview) — Adventure One QSS Inc., effective 2026-08-11