Are prediction markets legal in the Netherlands?

The short answer

No. Prediction markets, where you buy and sell positions on whether an event will happen, aren’t legal in the Netherlands. A Dutch licence for online gambling only covers casino games, bets on sports and bets on horse and trotting races; there’s no licence for bets on elections, politics, the economy or entertainment. The Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa) treats prediction markets as gambling and has acted against Polymarket.

What Dutch licences cover

Under the Besluit kansspelen op afstand, an online licence can cover casino games against the house, casino games between players, bets on events during or the result of a sports match, and bets on horse and trotting races. Lotteries are excluded. A sports match has to be organised sport recognised by NOC*NSF or a comparable international body.

On March 26, 2026, after finding bets on award votes such as a Most Valuable Player prize at several licensed bookmakers, the Ksa spelled it out: bets on other events fall outside the licence, including prizes decided by a jury or panel, and “bets on, for example, political elections or transfers of athletes are not allowed either”. The bookmakers removed those bets.

Why the Ksa treats prediction markets as gambling

In its order against Polymarket, the Ksa explained that on the prediction markets it examined, the final settlement depends on an external, objectively uncertain event, and that being able to take or trade positions beforehand doesn’t change the chance-based nature of the outcome. It added that, even with a licence, organising bets on events isn’t allowed. When the order was announced, the Ksa’s director of licensing and supervision said prediction-market bets “are not allowed on our market in any case, not even by licence holders”.

The Polymarket case

Polymarket can still appeal to the courts, and the Ksa said in February that a turnover-related fine could follow. More in is Polymarket legal in the Netherlands?

Kalshi and others

We found no Ksa decision or statement about Kalshi or any prediction market other than Polymarket as of October 23, 2026. No prediction market holds a Dutch licence, and the Ksa’s position applies to all of them.

Betting exchanges

Betting exchanges, where players bet against each other and the operator takes a commission, are a different case. The explanatory memorandum to the Besluit kansspelen op afstand names the betting exchange as one of the ways sports bets are organised and says a licence can in principle cover all sports bets; spread betting, where you can lose more than your stake, is banned. We found no licensed operator running an exchange in the Netherlands, and an exchange couldn’t offer bets on elections either.

What it means for you

• Taking part is prohibited. Article 1(1)(c) of the Wet op de kansspelen prohibits using an unlicensed game of chance if you know it has no licence.
• No protection. Unlicensed platforms don’t check Cruks, and there’s no Dutch regulator to turn to if something goes wrong.
• Tax. The Belastingdienst says winnings from online games without a Dutch licence must be declared if you won more than you staked in a month. We haven’t seen it address prediction markets specifically.
• Legal sports bets. If you want to bet on sport, use a licensed bookmaker: see our ranking of the best betting sites in the Netherlands.

What could change

On September 23, 2026, a motion was filed in the Dutch parliament asking the government to examine whether and how prediction markets could be regulated as a separate category. That’s a proposal, not law; we haven’t checked whether it was adopted.