What is a prediction market?
A prediction market lets you buy yes/no contracts on whether something will happen: whether the Bank of Canada cuts its rate at its next meeting, whether US inflation tops a threshold, whether a city’s rainfall passes a mark. Each contract costs between US$0.01 and US$0.99 and pays US$1 if you’re right, so the price works as the market’s estimate of the probability. Buy Yes at 40¢ and you’re betting the chance is better than 40%.
In Canada these contracts are called event contracts, or forecast contracts at Interactive Brokers, and they’re derivatives, regulated by the provincial securities commissions and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO). That’s why your choice is so much narrower than in the US. Our guide to how prediction markets work in Canada goes through the mechanics.
Are prediction markets legal in Canada?
Yes, through two dealers. Interactive Brokers Canada has offered forecast contracts since April 2025, and Wealthsimple has had CIRO’s authorization since March 2026 and launched its Predict app in July. No prediction market itself is recognized, registered or exempted by Canada’s securities regulators, so the platforms Americans use, such as Polymarket, can’t legally serve Canadians.
Both dealers trade under CIRO’s conditions, published in March 2026 and tightened on October 16, 2026: economic, environmental and financial indicator contracts only, at least 30 days to maturity when listed, no leverage, and nothing on sports, entertainment, elections or politics. Our guide to whether prediction markets are legal in Canada explains each rule and where it comes from.
Where Polymarket and Kalshi stand
- Polymarket isn’t registered anywhere in Canada. Under a 2025 settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission it must keep Ontario residents out, and by early July 2026 it had also blocked Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec. Elsewhere it may load, but it’s still unregistered. Is Polymarket legal in Canada?
- Kalshi lists Canada as a restricted jurisdiction: Canadians can’t trade on Kalshi itself. Its economic, financial and climate contracts reach Canada through Wealthsimple Predict, which routes every order to Kalshi, and through Interactive Brokers, which lists some Kalshi markets. Is Kalshi available in Canada?
Not sure about another site? Our legit check tells you whether a platform can legally serve Canadians.
Province by province
We found no province where either dealer is unavailable as of October 22, 2026. Wealthsimple Predict requires the age of majority in your province; Interactive Brokers requires 21 everywhere.
How much do prediction markets cost in Canada?
Two costs add up: the fee per contract and the conversion from Canadian to US dollars, because every contract is priced in US dollars.
Take 100 contracts at 40¢, held to settlement, at the Bank of Canada’s rate of 1.4057 on October 21, 2026. Converted just for that order and back, it costs C$59.92 all-in at Wealthsimple and C$60.45 on ForecastEx at IBKR, because IBKR’s US$2 minimum weighs on a small amount. Convert $1,000 at a time and ForecastEx costs C$57.80. Our fee calculator does the sums for your own trade, and the fees guide explains every charge.
Prediction markets vs sports betting in Canada
If you came looking for sports, event contracts can’t help: Canadian dealers aren’t allowed to offer them, and in August 2026 the regulators said sports and entertainment contracts fall outside securities law, which leaves them to the provinces’ gambling rules. Sports betting itself is legal, single games included since 2021, through each province’s lottery corporation and, in Ontario, through private sportsbooks registered with the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario and run under contract with iGaming Ontario. Those are gambling sites with their own rules and help tools, not event-contract markets.
Taxes
The Canada Revenue Agency hasn’t issued guidance specific to event contracts. Wealthsimple tells clients that gains and losses are generally capital gains or losses, reported in Canadian dollars at the exchange rate on each transaction, and that frequent trading can make them business income. Casual gambling winnings, by contrast, generally aren’t taxed. Our guide to prediction market taxes in Canada explains how to report them.
How to choose
- You’re 21 or older and trade regularly: Interactive Brokers. Convert a few hundred dollars at a time to spread its US$2 conversion minimum.
- You’re 18 to 20, or new to this: Wealthsimple Predict. Fund by Interac, start small, and use limit orders in quiet markets.
- You trade Canadian data, like the Bank of Canada’s rate: Kalshi’s markets are far deeper than ForecastEx’s, and both dealers give you Kalshi markets, at US$0.02 per contract.
- You want sports or elections: neither dealer offers them, and no legal Canadian platform does.
Trading responsibly
Event contracts are all-or-nothing: if you’re wrong, the contract pays nothing and you lose what you paid. After fees and currency conversion you need to be right more often than the price implies just to break even. Set a budget you can afford to lose, keep it separate from your savings, and use Wealthsimple’s recommended loss limit or your own. If trading stops being fun or starts to feel like chasing losses, our guide to gambling help in Canada lists the free, confidential helpline in every province and territory.
