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USA · Prediction markets · Free tool

Is this prediction market legit?

Type a platform’s name or web address to see whether it’s a CFTC-regulated exchange, a registered broker or something to steer clear of, plus what it offers in your state.

By SafeBet.ai Research Team Updated 25 sources

Check a platform

Registration checked October 19, 2026 · state notes as of September 30, 2026

Try one of these, or type any platform or web address:

What the results mean

In the US, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The check sorts every platform into one of six categories based on what the CFTC has, or hasn’t, registered.

  • CFTC-regulated exchange A designated contract market (DCM): an exchange the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved and examines, whose trades clear through a CFTC-registered clearinghouse. The safest category, though state rules on sports contracts still apply.
  • CFTC-registered broker A futures commission merchant (FCM) or introducing broker registered with the CFTC and the National Futures Association. It holds or routes your orders to CFTC-regulated exchanges and must keep customer funds separate from its own.
  • CFTC no-action letter Not a registered exchange. It operates because CFTC staff have said they won’t recommend enforcement as long as it keeps to the limits in its letter, such as small positions and a not-for-profit structure.
  • Application pending Has applied to become a CFTC-designated exchange but isn’t designated yet. Until it is, there is no CFTC-regulated version of this platform for US customers.
  • Not for US residents Serves customers outside the United States and isn’t registered with the CFTC. US users are blocked or can only close positions, and the CFTC warns you may have little or no protection with unregistered platforms.
  • Play money only No real-money trading, so no CFTC registration is needed. Fine for practice and forecasting; nothing to deposit or withdraw.

Platforms on file (23)

Every platform the tool knows, with the legal entity behind it and its status as of October 19, 2026. The five in our ranking link to their full reviews; availability notes for them are as of September 30, 2026.

CFTC-regulated exchange

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
Kalshi Our review KalshiEX LLC (exchange) and Kalshi Klear LLC (clearinghouse), both owned by Kalshi Inc. KalshiEX LLC has been a CFTC-designated contract market since November 3, 2020, and Kalshi Klear LLC a registered clearinghouse since August 2024. Kalshi Prime LLC, its broker arm, is on the CFTC’s August 2026 list of registered futures commission merchants. Most US states. As of September 30, 2026, court orders block sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Washington, and more categories in Nevada and Washington. Minimum age 18+
Polymarket US Our review QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US (exchange) and QC Clearing LLC d/b/a Polymarket Clearing (clearinghouse), owned by Polymarket (Blockratize, Inc.) QCX LLC was designated a contract market on July 9, 2025 (order amended November 24, 2025), and QC Clearing LLC is a registered clearinghouse. The international site, polymarket.com, is a separate, unregistered platform that is close-only for US users. All states except Nevada, according to Polymarket US on September 30, 2026. New York and several other states are challenging it in court. Minimum age 18+
OG (Crypto.com) OG Prediction Markets by Crypto.com Our review North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (NADEX), doing business as OG.com and Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA), a Crypto.com affiliate NADEX is both a designated contract market and a registered clearinghouse, and when you sign up on OG you become a member of the exchange directly. Crypto.com’s broker, Foris DAX FCM LLC (OG Broker), is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. The same exchange has supplied contracts to FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics Markets and Robinhood. All US states according to OG, but some contracts, including sports combos, are unavailable in some states, and OG publishes no state list. The exchange lost its Nevada appeal in August 2026 and has asked the Supreme Court to review it. Minimum age 18+
Interactive Brokers IBKR ForecastTrader / IBKR Prediction Markets (ForecastEx) Our review ForecastEx LLC (exchange and clearinghouse) and Interactive Brokers LLC (broker), both part of Interactive Brokers Group ForecastEx LLC was designated a contract market and registered as a clearinghouse on June 24, 2024. Interactive Brokers LLC, the broker you trade through, is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. Since May 2026 IBKR can also route orders to Kalshi and CME. Eligible IBKR clients in the US, Canada, Hong Kong, Ireland and Singapore. No US state exclusions found as of September 30, 2026, and no sports contracts. Minimum age 21+
Underdog Predict UDM LLC (broker) and Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. d/b/a UDX (exchange), owned by Underdog, which IG Group bought in July 2026 Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. has been a designated contract market since September 5, 2025, and UDM LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. Underdog’s prediction product used Crypto.com’s exchange until July 2026, when it moved to its own exchange. Its eligible-state list varies by source; check the app.
DraftKings Predictions GUS III LLC (broker) and Railbird Exchange, LLC d/b/a DKeX (exchange), owned by DraftKings Railbird Exchange, LLC has been a designated contract market since June 13, 2025, and GUS III LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. DraftKings launched DKeX in June 2026; its app has also offered contracts from Crypto.com’s exchange and CME. Sports contracts only in the 18 states where DraftKings has no sportsbook, with financial and other markets elsewhere. DeFi Rate lists Maine and New Hampshire as excluded (October 10, 2026). Minimum age 18+
Novig Ludlow Exchange, LLC d/b/a Novig Ludlow Exchange, LLC was designated a contract market on June 16, 2026. Sources disagree on whether trading had started by October 2026: DeFi Rate listed Novig as approved but not yet trading on October 10, while the tracker we use reports an August 2026 launch. Not available in Arizona, Michigan or Nevada, per our September 2026 research. Check the app. Minimum age 21+
ProphetX ProphetX LLC ProphetX LLC was designated a contract market on June 11, 2026, and registered as a clearinghouse the same month. Every state except Nevada, per our September 2026 research. Minimum age 18+
Gemini Predictions Gemini Titan, LLC, an affiliate of the Gemini crypto exchange (Gemini Space Station, Inc.) Gemini Titan, LLC was designated a contract market on December 10, 2025, the first crypto-exchange operator to get a designation for prediction markets. DeFi Rate lists Arizona, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Ohio as excluded (October 10, 2026). Minimum age 18+

CFTC-registered broker

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
Robinhood Robinhood Prediction Markets Our review Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, part of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (Nasdaq: HOOD) Robinhood Derivatives, LLC is a futures commission merchant on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list and a clearing member of ForecastEx, Kalshi and Rothera, all CFTC-registered clearinghouses. Every event contract must be fully collateralized, so you can’t lose more than you put in. US residents in the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands with an approved Robinhood Derivatives account. As of September 30, 2026, no sports contracts in Maryland, Nevada, Michigan or Washington. Minimum age 18+
Coinbase Coinbase prediction markets Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. (broker); Coinbase Derivatives, LLC (exchange) Coinbase Financial Markets, Inc. is on the CFTC’s August 2026 list of registered futures commission merchants, and Coinbase Derivatives, LLC has been a designated contract market since November 23, 2020. The event contracts in the Coinbase app are listed on Kalshi. Coinbase agreed to wind down sports contracts in Michigan in September 2026, with positions to close by October 10. Check the app for your state.
Webull Webull Prediction Markets Webull Financial LLC and Webull Futures LLC Webull Financial LLC and Webull Futures LLC both appear on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. Webull charges a 1¢ commission plus Kalshi’s 1¢ exchange fee on each opening and closing trade. Sports contracts aren’t available in Nevada, Maryland, Connecticut or Michigan, according to Webull (September 30, 2026).
PrizePicks Predict Performance Predictions II LLC, a PrizePicks company Performance Predictions II LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 list of registered futures commission merchants. The tracker we use for intermediaries reports that its orders are routed to Kalshi and Polymarket US; check the app’s disclosures for the exchange behind each contract. Not verified for this check. See the app’s eligible-state list.
Fanatics Markets Morton St Trading Investments LLC (broker), part of Fanatics; Water Street Labs, LLC (exchange) Morton St Trading Investments LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list, and Water Street Labs, LLC was designated a contract market on July 16, 2026. Fanatics Markets has listed and cleared its contracts on Crypto.com’s exchange and pays rewards in FanCash. Available in 23 states for users 21 and older, per our September 2026 research. Minimum age 21+
FanDuel Predicts FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC, a joint venture of CME Group and FanDuel FanDuel Prediction Markets LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 FCM list. Its sports contracts have listed on OG’s exchange since August 2026 and its financial contracts on CME. Sports contracts only in the 18 states where FanDuel has no sportsbook; financial contracts in all 50 states (DeFi Rate, October 10, 2026). Minimum age 18+
Sleeper Sleeper prediction markets Sleeper Markets LLC Sleeper Markets LLC is on the CFTC’s August 2026 list of registered futures commission merchants. Not verified for this check. See the app’s eligible-state list.
Public Public.com prediction markets Open to the Public Investing, Inc. Open to the Public Investing, Inc. is on the CFTC’s August 2026 list of registered futures commission merchants. Not verified for this check. See the app’s eligible-state list.

CFTC no-action letter

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
PredictIt Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (operations transferred from Victoria University of Wellington) CFTC Letter 14-130 lets a small, not-for-profit market offer political and economic event contracts to US persons for research, and Letter 25-20 (July 14, 2025) allowed the market to be transferred to the Prediction Market Research Consortium. Positions are capped at $3,500 per contract, the federal election contribution limit, and PredictIt keeps 10% of profits. US users 18 and older. Minimum age 18+

Application pending

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
Sporttrade Sporttrade DCM LLC (applicant) Sporttrade DCM LLC’s application to become a designated contract market has been pending at the CFTC since January 27, 2026. Check which state licenses, if any, cover the product you’re offered before you deposit.
Limitless Limitless Markets US, LLC (applicant) Limitless Markets US, LLC filed to become a designated contract market on May 1, 2026, and the application was still pending on October 19, 2026. Don’t trade on an unregistered version from the US.
Smarkets Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange LLC (applicant) Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange LLC’s application to become a designated contract market has been pending at the CFTC since March 3, 2026. Not for US residents until designated.

Not for US residents

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
Polymarket (polymarket.com) Polymarket international site Our review Polymarket (Blockratize, Inc.) polymarket.com runs on the USDC stablecoin outside CFTC oversight. In January 2022 the CFTC ordered Blockratize to pay a $1.4 million penalty and wind down the markets it had offered without registering, and Polymarket’s own geoblocking page lists the United States as close-only: US users can close positions but can’t open new ones. US residents use Polymarket US instead. Blocked for new positions from the United States. Using a VPN to get around the block breaks the terms and can cost you your funds.

Play money only

Platform Who runs it Registration Availability
Manifold Markets Manifold Markets, Inc. Manifold uses a play-money currency, mana, which it says “cannot be converted to cash”, and runs separate prize drawings for USDC with a free entry. Because you don’t trade real money, no CFTC registration is needed. Anyone can play; nothing to deposit or withdraw.

Check any platform yourself in three minutes

  1. Find the legal entity. Scroll to the footer or open the terms of service and the risk disclosure. The registered company (“KalshiEX LLC”, “Robinhood Derivatives, LLC”) is often not the brand name on the app.
  2. Exchange? Search the CFTC’s register. The list of designated contract markets shows every approved exchange with its designation date, and lists pending applications separately.
  3. Broker or app? Search NFA BASIC. BASIC shows whether a firm is a registered futures commission merchant or introducing broker, since when, and any disciplinary history.
  4. Foreign site? Check the RED List. The Registration Deficient List names foreign firms that appear to need CFTC registration but don’t have it.
  5. Check the address and the app. Type the official address yourself rather than following a link or an ad, and install apps only from the official store listings. The CFTC specifically advises verifying an app through the firm’s own website.
  6. Check your state. Federal registration doesn’t settle whether sports contracts are allowed where you are. Our guide to whether prediction markets are legal tracks the court cases state by state.

If something goes wrong with a registered platform, complain to the platform first, then to the exchange, and then to the CFTC or the NFA. With an unregistered site there is nobody to escalate to. Our guide to how to tell whether a prediction market is safe goes through the red flags and the scams reported in 2026.

Compare the 5 best prediction markets in the USA Ranked on regulation, fees, features and payouts · Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com (OG) and more See the ranking

Frequently asked questions

What makes a prediction market “legit” in the US?

Registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A legitimate platform is either a designated contract market (an exchange the CFTC has approved) or a registered broker, such as a futures commission merchant, that routes your orders to one. Both appear in the CFTC’s and the National Futures Association’s public registers, and both must keep customer money separate from their own.

How do I check a platform myself?

Find the legal entity named in the site’s footer or terms, then look it up in the CFTC’s list of designated contract markets (for exchanges) or in NFA BASIC (for brokers). Check the CFTC’s RED List, which names foreign firms that take US customers without registering. If the entity isn’t in any register, treat the platform as unregistered.

Is a CFTC-regulated platform legal in every state?

Not for every contract. Federal registration covers the exchange, but several states treat sports event contracts as unlicensed sports betting and have won court orders blocking them. As of September 30, 2026, sports contracts were unavailable on some platforms in Nevada, Michigan, Washington and Maryland. Select your state in the tool to see the notes for our top 5.

Is Kalshi legit?

Yes. KalshiEX LLC has been a CFTC-designated contract market since November 2020, its clearinghouse Kalshi Klear is CFTC-registered, and its broker arm is on the CFTC’s FCM list. Court orders do block its sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan and Washington. See our Kalshi review.

Is Polymarket legit in the US?

Polymarket US (polymarket.us), which runs on the CFTC-designated exchange QCX LLC, is. The international site polymarket.com is not registered with the CFTC and is close-only for US users, so don’t use a VPN to reach it. Our Polymarket review explains the difference.

What if the platform I’m checking isn’t in your database?

The tool gives you the manual checklist: the legal entity, the CFTC and NFA registers, the RED List, the age and location checks, and the red flags. If you still can’t find a registration, the CFTC’s advice is to trade only with registered entities, because you may have little or no protection otherwise. You can also tell us and we’ll look into it.

Guide · 8 min Are prediction markets safe? How to check a platform is legit A prediction market is safe to use when it runs on an exchange the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has designated, or through a broker the CFTC has registered: your money must be kept separate from the firm’s, every contract is fully collateralized, and there is a regulator to complain to. Offshore and crypto-only sites offer none of that. Before you deposit, find the platform’s legal entity in the CFTC’s and NFA’s public registers, type the official address yourself, and check what your state allows. All five platforms in our ranking pass. Read Guide · 7 min Are prediction markets legal in the US? Yes — prediction markets that list event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange are legal under federal law and available in most states. Sports contracts are the exception: as of September 30, 2026, federal appeals courts are split on whether states can ban them, several states block them, and the Supreme Court has been asked to decide. Read Methodology · 4 min How we rank prediction markets We score every US prediction market from 0 to 10 on six weighted criteria — regulation and safety (25%), markets and features (20%), fees (20%), liquidity (15%), deposits and withdrawals (10%) and the app experience (10%). Only platforms that US residents can legally use through a CFTC-regulated exchange or broker are eligible. Read

Sources

We verify facts against primary sources (regulators, court records, operators’ own terms) wherever possible.

  1. Be Smart: Check Registration & Backgrounds Before You Trade — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , accessed 2026-10-19
  2. Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , accessed 2026-10-19
  3. Registration Deficient List (RED List) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , accessed 2026-10-19
  4. BASIC: Background Affiliation Status Information Center — National Futures Association , accessed 2026-10-19
  5. Industry Filings: Trading Organizations (designated contract markets) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , accessed 2026-10-19
  6. Selected FCM Financial Data as of August 31, 2026 — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2026-10-01
  7. Best Prediction Market Apps 2026: List of US Prediction Markets — DeFi Rate , updated 2026-10-10
  8. CFTC regulated prediction markets (tracker) — mickbransfield.com , accessed 2026-10-19
  9. CFTC Designates KalshiEX LLC as a Contract Market (Press Release 8302-20) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2020-11-04
  10. CFTC Grants Kalshi Klear LLC DCO Registration (Press Release 8957-24) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2024-08-29
  11. Polymarket US Amended Order of Designation (QCX LLC) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2025-11-24
  12. CFTC Staff Letter 25-48 (QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US and QC Clearing LLC) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2025-12-11
  13. Geographic Restrictions (polymarket.com) — Polymarket Docs , accessed 2026-09-30
  14. CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty (Press Release 8478-22) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2022-01-03
  15. Event Contracts Risk Disclosure — Robinhood Derivatives, LLC , 2026-06-01
  16. Event contract restrictions — Robinhood Support , accessed 2026-09-30
  17. CDNA Terms and Conditions — North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. , 2026-08-27
  18. Introducing OG.com (U.S.) — OG Help Center , updated 2026-07-27
  19. CFTC Grants ForecastEx, LLC DCO Registration and DCM Designation (Press Release 8926-24) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2024-06-25
  20. Prediction Market Legal Update: Everything Everywhere All at Once — Covers , 2026-09-11
  21. Prediction Markets — Webull , accessed 2026-09-30
  22. Order of Designation: Ludlow Exchange, LLC — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2026-06-16
  23. Gemini Receives US License for Prediction Markets — Nasdaq (Gemini press release) , 2025-12-10
  24. CFTC Letter No. 25-20: Amendment of CFTC Letter No. 14-130 (PredictIt) — Commodity Futures Trading Commission , 2025-07-14
  25. About Manifold — Manifold Markets , accessed 2026-10-19